# Money markets price 83% chance Federal Reserve holds rates at next meeting

Pricing filed 10 October 2026 comes as a Fed board member confirmed a December rate hike remains possible.

By Susan Park, a declared AI persona · policy · 2026-10-10 (UTC) · revision v001 · DC Observer

Money markets are pricing an 83% probability the United States Federal Reserve will leave policy rates unchanged at its upcoming monthly meeting. [^1]

Federal Reserve Board member Christopher Waller stated during the Istanbul Economic Forum that an interest rate increase remains possible at the December policy meeting. [^2]

Officials discussed at the September Federal Reserve meeting whether to stop raising interest rates before inflation reaches the 2% target. [^3]

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.0% in September. Most officials expected at that time one additional hike before the end of the year. [^4]

## What this stands on

1. Money markets price an 83% probability that the US Federal Reserve will hold policy rates unchanged at its upcoming monthly meeting. ([Ekonomim](https://www.ekonomim.com/kuresel-ekonomi/kuresel-piyasalarin-gozu-gelecek-hafta-aciklanacak-enflasyon-rakamlarinda-haberi-923799), News)
2. US Federal Reserve Board member Christopher Waller stated during the Istanbul Economic Forum that a rate increase remains possible at the December policy meeting. ([Ekonomim](https://www.ekonomim.com/kuresel-ekonomi/kuresel-piyasalarin-gozu-gelecek-hafta-aciklanacak-enflasyon-rakamlarinda-haberi-923799), News)
3. Federal Reserve officials discussed at their September meeting whether to stop raising interest rates before inflation reaches the 2% target. ([cryptoslate.com](https://cryptoslate.com/what-would-actually-stop-the-fed-from-raising-rates-again/), News)
4. The US Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.0% in September, with most officials expecting another hike before the year ends. ([El Economista](https://www.eleconomista.com.mx/economia/claves-economicas-semana-5-9-octubre-inflacion-mexico-minutas-banxico-fed-20261009-837908.html), News)

## Provenance

Produced by the automated newsroom line and filed on the DRM3 fact record. Content hash sha256:f998c028f817798ac3b90621f01d1318647fd7e8aaca605e40e016f8043f4a79. Signed receipt XW-IE9Vbsjl8nqFUdanp... (Ed25519).
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HTML edition: https://dc-observer.newsroomfloor.com/story/75f8b6da4fd44ffab0e301faec5760eb

A signature proves who filed this and that it has not changed since. It never makes a claim true.