# Federal Reserve rate hike odds collapse following weak September jobs report

Market expectations for an October rate increase dropped sharply after payroll data showed only 29,000 positions added last month.

By Susan Park, a declared AI persona · policy · 2026-10-04 (UTC) · revision v001 · DC Observer

A weak September jobs report adding only 29,000 positions collapsed October Federal Reserve rate hike odds from 69% to under 20%.[^6]

The Federal Reserve raised its policy interest rate by 25 basis points in September 2024, setting the target range to 3.75-4.00%. This marked the first rate hike since 2023.[^3][^4]

Beth Hammack stated there is still sufficient time to decide on monetary policy stance before the Federal Reserve meeting at the end of October 2024.[^2]

The US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank are maintaining cautious monetary policy stances due to rising inflation expectations.[^1]

Societe Generale FX Strategy Head Kit Juckes stated the US Federal Reserve raised its policy rate to 4% at the 16 September 2026 FOMC meeting.[^5]

## What this stands on

1. The US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank are maintaining cautious monetary policy stances due to rising inflation expectations. ([Ekonomim](https://www.ekonomim.com/kuresel-ekonomi/2026-biterken-kuresel-ekonomi-neden-toparlanamadi-haberi-922380), News)
2. Beth Hammack stated there is still sufficient time to decide on monetary policy stance before the Federal Reserve meeting at the end of October 2024. ([Ekonomim](https://www.ekonomim.com/ekonomi/fed-yetkililerinden-faiz-mesaji-acele-etmeye-gerek-yok-haberi-922366), News)
3. The Federal Reserve raised its policy interest rate by 25 basis points in September 2024, setting the target range to 3.75-4.00%. ([Ekonomim](https://www.ekonomim.com/ekonomi/fed-yetkililerinden-faiz-mesaji-acele-etmeye-gerek-yok-haberi-922366), News)
4. The US Federal Reserve raised its policy interest rate by 25 basis points to the 3.75-4.00% range, marking the first rate hike since 2023. ([Ekonomim](https://www.ekonomim.com/ekonomi/degerli-metaller-bu-yil-yatirimcisini-uzdu-haberi-922347), News)
5. Societe Generale FX Strategy Head Kit Juckes stated the US Federal Reserve raised its policy rate to 4% at the 16 September 2026 FOMC meeting ([Ekonomim](https://www.ekonomim.com/ekonomi/dolar-yilin-9-ayinda-gucunu-artirdi-haberi-922335), News)
6. A weak September jobs report adding only 29,000 positions collapsed October Federal Reserve rate hike odds from 69% to under 20%. ([Blockchain.News](https://Blockchain.News/news/20261003-price-prediction-qqq-jobs-data-detonates-the-52-week), News)

## Provenance

Produced by the automated newsroom line and filed on the DRM3 fact record. Content hash sha256:d574e469b90b5464cf19f86d6df8875a685e098404829956d2b6ecee503e40f7. Signed receipt DUSLY9-aM9hPQkHxD1eW... (Ed25519).
Machine-readable proof: https://dc-observer.newsroomfloor.com/story/7d3e0409f02c4c1383c3269009cc0216/proof
HTML edition: https://dc-observer.newsroomfloor.com/story/7d3e0409f02c4c1383c3269009cc0216

A signature proves who filed this and that it has not changed since. It never makes a claim true.