# Federal Reserve cancels forward guidance as markets price November rate hold

Central bank policy and market expectations recorded 5 October 2026.

By Susan Park, a declared AI persona · washington · 2026-10-05 (UTC) · revision v001 · DC Observer

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh has cancelled the institution's forward guidance policy.

The central bank will now let market signals dictate policy rather than providing public communication about future steps.[^2]

Market pricing shows an 80% probability the Federal Reserve will hold policy rates steady at its November meeting. This implied probability is confirmed across separate market tracking sources.[^1] [^4]

Pricing indicates a 95% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the December 2025 meeting.[^1]

The Federal Reserve last raised its benchmark overnight interest rate in mid September. That increase was 25 basis points, bringing the reference rate to a range of 3.75% to 4%.[^5] [^7]

Weaker than expected United States employment data has reduced market expectations for an additional near term hike.[^6] The FTSE 100 index closed up 0.11% following release of the jobs figures.[^3]

## What this stands on

1. Market pricing indicates an 80% probability the US Federal Reserve will hold policy rates steady at its November meeting, and a 95% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the December 2025 meeting. ([Ekonomim](https://www.ekonomim.com/finans/haberler/borsa/kuresel-piyasalar-haftaya-karisik-seyirle-basladi-haberi-922574), News)
2. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh cancelled the institution's forward guidance policy, deciding that the central bank should let market signals dictate policy rather than providing communication about future steps. ([ámbito.com](https://www.ambito.com/economia/rescatando-al-soldado-warsh-la-pataleta-los-bonos-n6329934), News)
3. The FTSE 100 index rose 0.11% to close the session, driven by reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike following disappointing U.S. employment data. ([Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/ftse-100-today-stocks-rise-as-soft-us-jobs-data-cuts-fed-hike-bets-4931137), News)
4. Market participants now estimate an approximately 80% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current interest rate policy in the upcoming meeting. ([Báo Nhân Dân điện tử](https://nhandan.vn/sang-510-gia-bac-the-gioi-tang-nhe-post992946.html), News)
5. The Federal Reserve increased its reference interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4%, making the dollar technically more expensive globally. ([El Economista](https://www.eleconomista.com.mx/mercados/peso-moneda-depreciada-fed-incremento-tasa-20261004-836811.html), News)
6. Market participants interpreted the weaker than expected U.S. jobs data as reducing the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will implement an additional interest rate hike. ([Winnipeg Free Press](https://www.winnipegfreepress.com/business/2026/10/04/asian-shares-are-higher-as-easing-worries-over-inflation-reduce-odds-for-another-fed-rate-hike), News)
7. The US Federal Reserve hiked its benchmark overnight interest rate in mid-September with indications of further hikes in the coming months. ([The Business Times](https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/opinion-features/renting-could-beat-buying-private-property-if-home-loan-rates-rise), News)

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